This study focuses on understanding the potential pathways and scenarios for the future of international shipping, in the context of wider global decarbonisation consistent with the Paris Agreement. The study derived targets ranging from the most ambitious, achieving zero emissions by around 2035 (temperature stabilization 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels), to the least ambitious, approximately keeping CO2 emissions from shipping constant at their current levels (a target representative of the average developing country’s Nationally Determined Contribution). Corresponding to each target, a set of simulated pathways, each exploring the details of how the shipping industry would meet the specified target, were produced.

This study was undertaken using a series of models and selections of assumptions, to simulate how the shipping sector might evolve to meet different constraints on its total CO2 emissions.