New Zealand has particularly high aviation emissions, both per capita and as a proportion of all carbon dioxide emissions, and proven ability to increase them rapidly. New Zealand has the experience of an almost complete halt to international aviation during Covid.

The authors survey recent developments in this area with particular reference to New Zealand, finding that aviation pathways with very high proportions of sustainable aviation fuel are unrealistic, even more so when combined with high traffic growth.

Therefore, the main other thing that affects emissions—the amount of flying, and the factors that determine it—is examined closely.