Abstract

This paper seeks to better understand the availability of datasets pertinent to the baselining, monitoring and forecasting of economic impacts resulting from implementation of the IMO’s Revised 2023 Strategy targets. The study focuses on Kiribati and Vanuatu, comparing five alternative sources of merchandise trade and transport cost statistics relevant to the IMO-led Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA) process, including data from; a. national customs authorities collected at source b. National Statistics Office (NSO) publications available online, c. the UN COMTRADE platform, d. UNCTAD’s Trade & Transport dataset and e. the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), specifically the most recent version of its database (GTAP-11). Data from c., d. and e. were widely utilised across the various tasks of the IMO’s CIA. The paper demonstrates the inherently poor quality of Pacific data in terms of availability, coherence and aggregation. Whilst implications of these findings with respect to the results of the IMO-led CIA currently unknown, the report concludes by suggesting that the requisite data and modelling architecture to comprehensively baseline and monitor economic impacts on these climate most-vulnerable states doesn’t currently exist. The report suggests that the timely roll-out of UNCTAD’s ASYCUDA system and the identification of a global economic modelling architecture with sufficient geographic resolution to capture economic impacts at the smallest scales will be required in order to establish this capacity in time for the scheduled introduction of IMO midterm measures on 1 March 2027.

James Stewart¹, Peter Nuttall^2,3, Maria Sahib² and Serguey Maximov Gajardo<sup>4

1</sup>UCL Energy Institute
²Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport
³University of Fiji
⁴UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources

Abstract

In November 2024, the Cruise Liner Industry Associations of Aotearoa and Australia issued a press release and a 4-page infographic that claimed their economic research undertaken for the sector “provides the first detailed analysis of cruise tourism in Aotearoa and quantifies its full economic impact alongside the employment it supports” and found that the cruise liner tourism generated a total economic output of NZ$ 1.37 billion in Aotearoa during 2023-24. This paper reviews the available literature on the impacts (economic, environmental and social) of the cruise liner industry in Aotearoa and the Pacific and considers whether the economic research undertaken on behalf of the cruise industry does indeed provide a detailed analysis and quantify its full economic impact. The literature base specific to the region is thin and inadequate. Pre-Covid the cruise industry globally was fast growing and in Aotearoa was a niche but growing tourism market. During the pandemic the industry in NZ and the Pacific was hit particularly hard and completely shut down along with the rest of the tourism industry. A growing question over the overall benefits from mass tourism was part of the national pandemic discourse with repeated consensus on the need to ‘build back better and smarter’ in the post pandemic recovery. Three years post recovery, the narrative has reversed with all apparent tourism focus on regrowing and surpassing pre-Covid numbers of passenger and ship visits. There appears little or no independent research or assessment, certainly no interdisciplinary work, to truth the industry reports that project increased cruise tourism as an overall benefit. Such assessment is required for several public good agendas; including understanding the real economic costs and benefits, the costs of any environmental externalities, which potentially include pollution to sea and air including GHG emissions and societal externalities including public health and the potential liability for risk in the event of maritime disaster. All of these, if they exist, can be considered public liabilities in that the cost falls to the society as a whole. A broad literature review is essential to developing a base for more detailed work. This paper summarises key published research and relevant grey literature and makes recommendations as to specific gaps and areas where further research is a priority, if a more fully considered debate on the overall impact of the cruise liner industry on Aotearoa and Pacific Islands States is to be had.

Alison Newell¹,², Peter Nuttall¹,³ and Jack Newell⁴

¹Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport
²Chartered Institute of Ecology & Environmental Management
³University of Fiji
⁴Victoria University Wellington

Abstract

This paper considers the potential impacts on Pacific Islands food security of proposed IMO mid-term measures for implementing the IMO’s 2023 Strategy for reduction of GHG emission from shipping. The paper discusses the context of food security as one element of the potential impacts, noting the ongoing issues of data paucity for Pacific Island states, reviews the recent relevant literature and presents an illustrative case study of Kiribati using best available data. Regardless of the mid term measures option selected at IMO, all evidence is that Pacific Island states will be among the most disproportionately impacted. Those impacts will include increased costs of all imported food (and all other shipped goods).

Morgan Wairiu¹,², Peter Nuttall¹,³, Maria Sahib¹ , Andrew Irvin⁴,¹, Viliamu Iese⁴ , James Stewart⁵ and Eldine Glees¹,⁶

¹Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
²Solomon Islands National University, Honiara
³University of Fiji, Saweni
⁴University of Melbourne
⁵University College London
⁶University of Plymouth

Abstract

Europe’s IMO proposed mid-term measures revenue use will not result in a just and equitable 1.5 degree aligned transition, its approach to using revenues to meet the agreed objectives of the 2023 IMO Strategy is regressive, unbalanced and inadequate.

Peter Nuttall¹,²

¹Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
²University of Fiji

Abstract

In the space of a decade, a small alliance of high ambition PSIDS has demonstrated their capacity to engineer catalytic action within a sector many described as ‘too hard to abate’.

John Fatuimoana Kautoke¹ , John Taukave¹,², Morgan Wairiu³ , Maria Sahib¹ , Atina Schutz¹ , Peter Nuttall¹,⁴, Alison Newell¹ and Pierre-Jean Bordahandy¹

¹Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
²University of Hawai’i at Manoa
³Solomon Islands National University
⁴University of Fiji

Abstract

The IMO’s 2023 Revised Strategy for reduction of emissions from ships includes provisions which direct a just and equitable transition. How should revenues be disbursed to ensure that the sector reduces its emissions in a way that leaves no state behind and compensates the climate most vulnerable for the pollution caused?

Peter Nuttall¹,², Alison Newell¹, Atina Schutz¹, Maria Sahib¹, Aileen Sefeti¹, John Fatuimoana Kautoke¹, John Taukäve¹,³ and Pierre-Jean Bordahandy¹

¹Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
²University of Fiji
³University of Hawai’i at Manoa