MCST Working Paper Series


Not What It Seems: Pacific Trade Data Quality Limits the Understanding of Maritime Decarbonisation’s Economic Impacts on the World’s Most Climate-Vulnerable States
Abstract
This paper seeks to better understand the availability of datasets pertinent to the baselining, monitoring and forecasting of economic impacts resulting from implementation of the IMO’s Revised 2023 Strategy targets. The study focuses on Kiribati and Vanuatu, comparing five alternative sources of merchandise trade and transport cost statistics relevant to the IMO-led Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA) process, including data from; a. national customs authorities collected at source b. National Statistics Office (NSO) publications available online, c. the UN COMTRADE platform, d. UNCTAD’s Trade & Transport dataset and e. the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), specifically the most recent version of its database (GTAP-11). Data from c., d. and e. were widely utilised across the various tasks of the IMO’s CIA. The paper demonstrates the inherently poor quality of Pacific data in terms of availability, coherence and aggregation. Whilst implications of these findings with respect to the results of the IMO-led CIA currently unknown, the report concludes by suggesting that the requisite data and modelling architecture to comprehensively baseline and monitor economic impacts on these climate most-vulnerable states doesn’t currently exist. The report suggests that the timely roll-out of UNCTAD’s ASYCUDA system and the identification of a global economic modelling architecture with sufficient geographic resolution to capture economic impacts at the smallest scales will be required in order to establish this capacity in time for the scheduled introduction of IMO midterm measures on 1 March 2027.
James Stewart1, Peter Nuttall2,3, Maria Sahib2 and Serguey Maximov Gajardo4
1UCL Energy Institute
2Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport
3University of Fiji
4UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources


Cruise Liners - are they good for Aotearoa and the Pacific and what more do we need to know? A Literature Review
Abstract
In November 2024, the Cruise Liner Industry Associations of Aotearoa and Australia issued a press release and a 4-page infographic that claimed their economic research undertaken for the sector “provides the first detailed analysis of cruise tourism in Aotearoa and quantifies its full economic impact alongside the employment it supports” and found that the cruise liner tourism generated a total economic output of NZ$ 1.37 billion in Aotearoa during 2023-24. This paper reviews the available literature on the impacts (economic, environmental and social) of the cruise liner industry in Aotearoa and the Pacific and considers whether the economic research undertaken on behalf of the cruise industry does indeed provide a detailed analysis and quantify its full economic impact. The literature base specific to the region is thin and inadequate. Pre-Covid the cruise industry globally was fast growing and in Aotearoa was a niche but growing tourism market. During the pandemic the industry in NZ and the Pacific was hit particularly hard and completely shut down along with the rest of the tourism industry. A growing question over the overall benefits from mass tourism was part of the national pandemic discourse with repeated consensus on the need to ‘build back better and smarter’ in the post pandemic recovery. Three years post recovery, the narrative has reversed with all apparent tourism focus on regrowing and surpassing pre-Covid numbers of passenger and ship visits. There appears little or no independent research or assessment, certainly no interdisciplinary work, to truth the industry reports that project increased cruise tourism as an overall benefit. Such assessment is required for several public good agendas; including understanding the real economic costs and benefits, the costs of any environmental externalities, which potentially include pollution to sea and air including GHG emissions and societal externalities including public health and the potential liability for risk in the event of maritime disaster. All of these, if they exist, can be considered public liabilities in that the cost falls to the society as a whole. A broad literature review is essential to developing a base for more detailed work. This paper summarises key published research and relevant grey literature and makes recommendations as to specific gaps and areas where further research is a priority, if a more fully considered debate on the overall impact of the cruise liner industry on Aotearoa and Pacific Islands States is to be had.
Alison Newell1,2, Peter Nuttall1,3 and Jack Newell4
1Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport
2Chartered Institute of Ecology & Environmental Management
3University of Fiji
4Victoria University Wellington


Potential Impacts of IMO GHG reduction measures on Pacific Food Security
Abstract
This paper considers the potential impacts on Pacific Islands food security of proposed IMO mid-term measures for implementing the IMO’s 2023 Strategy for reduction of GHG emission from shipping. The paper discusses the context of food security as one element of the potential impacts, noting the ongoing issues of data paucity for Pacific Island states, reviews the recent relevant literature and presents an illustrative case study of Kiribati using best available data. Regardless of the mid term measures option selected at IMO, all evidence is that Pacific Island states will be among the most disproportionately impacted. Those impacts will include increased costs of all imported food (and all other shipped goods).
Morgan Wairiu1,2, Peter Nuttall1,3, Maria Sahib1 , Andrew Irvin4,1, Viliamu Iese4 , James Stewart5 and Eldine Glees1,6
1Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
2Solomon Islands National University, Honiara
3University of Fiji, Saweni
4University of Melbourne
5University College London
6University of Plymouth


What is the European bloc’s position on the use of revenues from a price on international shipping’s GHG pollution?
Abstract
Europe’s IMO proposed mid-term measures revenue use will not result in a just and equitable 1.5 degree aligned transition, its approach to using revenues to meet the agreed objectives of the 2023 IMO Strategy is regressive, unbalanced and inadequate.
Peter Nuttall1,2
1Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
2University of Fiji


Holomui ki mu’a: Pacific catalytic action at IMO proves the power of small
Abstract
In the space of a decade, a small alliance of high ambition PSIDS has demonstrated their capacity to engineer catalytic action within a sector many described as ‘too hard to abate’.
John Fatuimoana Kautoke1 , John Taukave1,2, Morgan Wairiu3 , Maria Sahib1 , Atina Schutz1 , Peter Nuttall1,4, Alison Newell1 and Pierre-Jean Bordahandy1
1Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
2University of Hawai’i at Manoa
3Solomon Islands National University
4University of Fiji


Disbursement of Revenues generated by IMO’s emission reduction measures: Is contributing to a just and equitable transition that leaves no state behind an empty slogan? How much should be spent on what by who?
Abstract
The IMO’s 2023 Revised Strategy for reduction of emissions from ships includes provisions which direct a just and equitable transition. How should revenues be disbursed to ensure that the sector reduces its emissions in a way that leaves no state behind and compensates the climate most vulnerable for the pollution caused?
Peter Nuttall1,2, Alison Newell1, Atina Schutz1, Maria Sahib1, Aileen Sefeti1, John Fatuimoana Kautoke1, John Taukäve1,3 and Pierre-Jean Bordahandy1
1Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, Majuro
2University of Fiji
3University of Hawai’i at Manoa
